阿凡达

Death came from sea, air and ground: A timeline of surprise attack by Hamas on Israel_我的网站

A | 10月8日，国庆假期的最后一天，我在深圳地铁2号线上，认识了一位印度旅客。 As Israelis were wrapping up the seven-day-long Jewish festival of Sukkot on Saturday, sirens echoed across the country just before dawn, and citizens soon realized it was not a false alarm. A full-fledged surprise attack was being waged from the air, sea and ground by hoards of Hamas militants.Thousands of missiles fired from Gaza streaked through the sky and began raining down on indiscriminate targets in Israel, sparking terror and leaving hundreds of bodies in the streets of cities and buildings decimated. Simultaneously, hundreds of armed fighters of the terrorist group, many on motorcycles, followed bulldozers that breached fences separating Israel from Gaza and charged into cities, taking Israeli soldiers off guard and gunning down citizens.On ABC News Live at 8:30 p.m. on Thursday, Oct. 12, ABC News' James Longman, Matt Gutman and Ian Pannell look at the horrendous toll from Hamas' massacre, the Israelis and Palestinians caught in the middle and what comes next.The lightning-quick, multi-pronged ambush also included dozens of Hamas militants in motorboats storming Israeli beaches and engaging in fierce firefights with Israeli forces. Other armed Hamas attackers swooped into Israel through the smoke-filled skies on paragliders.As those under attack rushed to safe rooms and bomb shelters, groups of terrorists infiltrating the county marched into towns and into kibbutz after kibbutz, opening fire on homes and killing Israeli citizens at random. Militants burst into houses, shooting residents begging for their lives and taking others -- including women, children and the elderly -- hostage, driving the terrified captives back into Gaza as many of them screamed for help.A music festival where hundreds of Israeli young people danced through the night into the break of dawn suddenly became a shooting gallery for the Hamas militants, who arrived in vans with their guns blazing, mowing down 260 partygoers and abducting others.Hamas leaders are now threatening to kill the hostages one by one and film the executions if their demands are not met.In one of the hardest-hit kibbutzim, Kfar Aza, near the Gaza border, where ABC News was allowed in on Tuesday, entire Israeli families were slaughtered and bodies of militants killed in the attack remained sprawled in the streets, some next to crashed motorcycles. Nearly every home in Kfar Aza was bullet-riddled, and a gaping hole in a nearby border fence remained open and guarded by Israeli soldiers still engaging in intense firefights with the enemy.The bodies of numerous Hamas fighters have been found along the border, killed in chaotic battles since Saturday, the Israel Defense Forces said.Within hours of the attack that shocked the world, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was calling it a "dark day" for his country and declaring war on Hamas. A veteran Israeli military official deemed the assault "our 9/11.""We have begun the process of naming and counting the dead, both soldiers and civilians. We are talking about unprecedented numbers, numbers that up until two days ago seemed totally fictional and unimaginable," Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, a spokesperson for the IDF, told ABC News on Sunday.As of Thursday morning, the death toll in Israel stood at more than 1,200, officials said. Another 2,900 people were injured in Israel. Among the dead are at least 27 American citizens, John Kirby, spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council, said Thursday afternoon. An undetermined number of Americans were taken hostage, U.S. officials said.In Gaza, at least 1,417 people have died and 6,000 others have been injured since the retaliatory airstrikes by Israel began, the Palestinian Health Ministry said Thursday. At least 447 of the dead in Gaza are children and 248 are women, the health ministry said.The Hamas attack was launched on the 50th anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur War that pitted Israel against Egypt and Syria.Here is a timeline of events in the rapidly changing conflict enveloping Israel and the Palestinian Gaza Strip territory:

A barrage of rockets

Oct. 7, 6:30 a.m. in Israel

Air raid sirens began sounding in Jerusalem around 6:30 a.m. local time, warning citizens of the attack in progress and to immediately take cover. An estimated 2,200 rockets were fired toward southern and central Israel, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, by the Hamas militants, according to the Israel Defense Forces. Meanwhile, Hamas claimed at least 5,000 rockets were fired, all landing in southern and central Israel.One missile slammed into a hospital in the Israeli coastal town of Ashkelon, Israeli officials said.Armed Hamas militants, many on motorcycles, storm blockaded areas of the Gaza Strip, shooting at Jewish settlers in the Gaza Strip, officials said. Video footage surfaces of Hamas militants taking Israeli citizens -- including mothers, children and the elderly -- hostage and taking them across the Gaza border.In one of its first public messages, the IDF said Saturday morning, "Over the past hour, the Hamas terrorist organization launched massive barrages of rockets from Gaza into Israel, and its terrorist operatives have infiltrated into Israel in a number of different locations in the south." Videos posted online captured hundreds of Hamas soldiers breaching the Israeli border from Gaza by boat, pickup trucks and even motorized paragliders.

Oct. 7, shortly after the attack begins

Mohammed Deif, commander in chief of the Hamas' military arm Al Qassam Brigades, releases a video statement claiming responsibility for the attack."The Zionist colonial occupation occupied our Palestinian homeland and displaced our people, destroyed our towns and villages, committed hundreds of massacres against our people, killing children, women and elderly people and demolishing homes with their inhabitants inside in violation of all international norms, laws and human rights conventions," Mohammed Deif said in his statement.

'Israel is at war'

Oct. 7, about 10:30 a.m. local time

Israeli jet fighters launched retaliatory strikes in Gaza. Video surfaces of a high-rise residential building and the Al-Sousi Mosque in Gaza City being bombed and flattened by Israeli airstrikes

Oct. 7, around 11:30 a.m. in Israel

Netanyahu makes his first public statement, telling his country, "Israel is at war.""This is not a so-called military operation, not another round of fighting, but war," Netanyahu says.

Oct. 7, around 8:30 p.m. ET

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin releases a statement saying he is "closely monitoring" the situation in Israel and extends his condolences to the families of those who have lost their lives in Israel."Over the coming days, the Department of Defense will work to ensure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself and protect civilians from indiscriminate violence and terrorism," Austin said.Separately, a U.S. defense official said that Austin had a call with his team Saturday morning, including U.S. Centcom Commander Gen. Eric Kurilla. Israel falls under CENTCOM's area of responsibility.

Oct. 7, around 9:30 a.m. ET

The White House announces that President Joe Biden has been briefed by senior national security officials "on the appalling Hamas terrorist attacks in Israel."

Oct. 7, just after 10 a.m. ET

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken issues a statement condemning Hamas' attack on Israel, saying the U.S. will "remain in close contact with our Israel partners.""The United States unequivocally condemns the appalling attacks by Hamas terrorists against Israel, including civilians and civilian communities. There is never any justification for terrorism. We stand in solidarity with the government and people of Israel, and extend our condolences for the Israeli lives lost in these attacks," Blinken said in a statement.

Oct. 7, around 11 a.m. ET

The White House announces that Biden had spoken with Netanyahu, telling the prime minister the U.S. "condemns" Hamas' assault on Israel."I made clear to Prime Minister Netanyahu that we stand ready to offer all appropriate means of support to the Government and people of Israel. Terrorism is never justified. Israel has a right to defend itself and its people. The United States warns against any other party hostile to Israel seeking advantage in this situation. My Administration's support for Israel's security is rock solid and unwavering," Biden said in a televised statement.

'We will win'

Oct. 7, around 5 p.m. ET

Netanyahu makes a televised address in Israel, repeating his earlier statement that Israel is at war and adding, "We will win.""This morning, Hamas launched a murderous surprise attack against the State of Israel and its citizens," Netanyahu said. "We have been in this since the early morning hours. I convened the heads of the security establishment and ordered -- first of all -- to clear out the communities that have been infiltrated by terrorists. This currently is being carried out. At the same time, I have ordered an extensive mobilization of reserves and that we return fire of a magnitude that the enemy has not known. The enemy will pay an unprecedented price. In the meantime, I call on the citizens of Israel to strictly adhere to the directives of the IDF and Home Front Command. We are at war and we will win it."

30 Israeli police killed in fighting

Oct. 8, around 5 a.m. ET

At least 30 Israeli police officers were killed in the fighting, mainly in Sderot, Israel, where Hamas gunmen took control of the police station.Israeli officials announce that fighting is ongoing Sunday morning in six places, including Sderot -- which sits just 2 miles from the border with Gaza -- and that a rocket injured four people on Sunday morning.

Oct. 8, around 9 a.m. ET

The Israeli government confirmed that a number of civilians and soldiers have been taken hostage. At least 100 Israeli citizens and soldiers are being held hostage by Hamas fighters, Israel's Government Press Office said Sunday.Videos posted online show a packed all-night music festival in a desert in southern Israel near the Gaza border being attacked by rockets and armed Hamas fighters on the ground. The footage showed women and children being dragged away in vehicles and driven back into Gaza.Israeli rescue service Zaka said at least 260 bodies were removed from the venue of the music festival following the attack.Blinken says on CNN's "State of the Union" and NBC's "Meet the Press" that the State Department is trying to confirm reports that Americans are among those killed or taken hostage.Blinken tells ABC's "This Week" anchor George Stephanopoulos that the U.S. has pledged its full support to Israel."This is a massive terrorist attack that is gunning down Israeli civilians in their towns, in their homes, and as we've seen, so graphically, literally dragging people across the border with Gaza, including a Holocaust survivor in a wheelchair, women and children," Blinken said on "This Week."He adds, "The world should be revolted at what it's seen."

Oct. 8, around 1 p.m. ET

Israeli health officials announce that more than 700 people are dead in Israel and over 2,100 others injured. The Palestinian Health Authority said there are 370 people dead in Gaza and 2,200 others injured.

Oct. 9, morning

Air sirens sound in northern Israel, prompting residents to rush to safe rooms. Israel Defense Forces claim at least two rockets were fired toward northern Israel from Lebanon. One of the rockets, according to the IDF, landed in Lebanese territory."The IDF neutralized a number of terrorist infiltrators who crossed from Lebanon into Israel. We are defending our country and stand ready on all borders," the IDF said in a statement Monday posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.IDF helicopter gunships are attacking Lebanese territories, the IDF announces.The Lebanese Army announces Monday that missiles were fired from Israel in Lebanon."The outskirts of the towns of Al-Dhaira and Aita Al-Shaab and other border areas are being subjected to air and artillery bombardment by the Israeli enemy," the Lebanese Army said in a statement. "The Army Command calls on citizens to take the utmost precaution and caution and not to go to areas adjacent to the border in order to preserve their safety."There are no immediate reports of injuries.

Americans killed

Oct. 9, about 6 a.m. ET

At least nine Americans have been confirmed killed in Israel since Saturday as a result of attacks launched by the Hamas militant group, according to an official with the U.S. National Security Council."At this time, we can confirm the death of nine U.S. citizens," the official told ABC News in a statement on Monday. "We extend our deepest condolences to the victims and to the families of all those affected and wish those injured a speedy recovery. We continue to monitor the situation closely and remain in touch with our Israeli partners, particularly the local authorities."Two French citizens are among those killed in Israel, the French Foreign Ministry announces.One of the American citizens killed was identified as 32-year-old Hayim Katsman, who had been living in Israel, his mother told ABC News.Hannah Katsman said she initially thought her son had been taken captive, but later learned he had been killed when Hamas militants burst into his home and found him hiding with neighbors in his closet. She said she learned one of the neighbors was released, while her son and another female neighbor were immediately shot dead."I've been getting so many messages from people who worked with Hayim or who knew him, or who met him during their travels and how warm he was, how open," Hannah Katsman told ABC News. "He was a very accepting person and a very loyal friend. He had a good sense of humor. He took things in stride."

Oct, 9, about 8 a.m. ET

The Israel Defense Forces announces its jet fighters struck 130 targets in the Gaza Strip early Monday, many of them in the Al Furqan area, which serves as a hub for Hamas.Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Monday ordered a "complete siege" on Gaza. He said authorities would cut electricity to the region and block fuel and food from entering the Gaza Strip, home to 2.3 million Palestinians.In an interview with ABC News Monday, Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces, said Israel is taking swift retribution for Hamas attacks."It is an unprecedented attack," Conricus said. "And it will be followed by an unprecedented Israeli response against those bloodthirsty animals that have come across from Gaza and attacked our civilians."

Hamas threatens to kill hostages

Oct. 9, around 1 p.m. ET

Hamas says the group will start killing Israeli hostages one by one and film the executions unless Israel immediately stops shelling homes in Gaza without warning.In an update on the Israeli hostages taken by Hamas, Israel Defense Forces announces it has obtained information on every Israeli kidnapped and that it has notified 30 families so far.

Oct. 9, just after 1 p.m. ET

The Israel Defense Forces announces it has mobilized 300,000 reserves -- the largest and quickest call-up in Israel's history, according to an IDF spokesman.

Oct. 9, about 4 p.m. ET

President Joe Biden announces that at least 11 Americans are among those who were killed in Israel and that it's "likely" American citizens are among those being held hostage by Hamas."It's heart-wrenching. These families have been torn apart by inexcusable hatred and violence," Biden said in a statement. "We also know that American citizens still remain unaccounted for, and we are working with Israeli officials to obtain more information as to their whereabouts. My heart goes out to every family impacted by the horrible events of the past few days. The pain these families have endured, the enormity of their loss, and the agony of those still awaiting information is unfathomable."

'Pure, unadulterated evil'

Oct. 10, just after 3 p.m. ET

At least 14 Americans have been killed in the terrorist attacks and that an undetermined number had been taken hostage, President Biden said Tuesday."We now know that American citizens are among those being held by Hamas," Biden said. "I've directed my team to share intelligence and deploy additional experts from across the United States government to consult with and advise Israeli counterparts on hostage recovery efforts. Because as president, I have no higher priority than the safety of Americans being held hostage around the world."Biden said the atrocities committed by Hamas fighters included the "slaughter" of men, women and entire families, as well as "stomach-churning reports of babies being killed.""There are moments in this life, I mean this literally when the pure, unadulterated evil is unleashed on this world," said Biden, flanked by Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. "The people of Israel lived through one such moment this weekend."Biden added, "We will make sure the Jewish and democratic state of Israel can defend itself today and tomorrow."Following Biden's address, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters that at least 20 Americans remain unaccounted for in Israel, but emphasized that not all of them are believed to be Hamas hostages. He said a precise number of U.S. hostages is still being investigated.

Oct. 10, around 4 p.m. ET

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant tours southern Israel along the Gaza border, telling soldiers they are moving to "a full-scale response" to the Hamas surprise attack and that he has "removed every restriction.""Hamas wanted to see a change in Gaza -- the reality is Gaza will make a 180. They will regret [their actions]," Gallant says.He adds, "We will not allow a reality in which Israeli children are murdered. I have removed every restriction. We will eliminate anyone who fights us, and use every measure at our disposal. Anyone who decapitates citizens, or murders women and Holocaust survivors -- will be eliminated."Gallant's comments come as IDF soldiers from the 17th Battalion, with the assistance of aerial fire from a remotely manned aircraft and a combat helicopter, are exchanging fire with a number of terrorists held up in Ashkelon, a coastal city in southern Israel. The soldiers, according to the IDF, killed three terrorists in the industrial area of the city and were continuing to search the area as night fell.

Oct. 11, around 5 p.m.

The White House told ABC News Wednesday afternoon that the number of American citizens killed remains at least 22, but that the number of American citizens unaccounted for now stands at 17 instead of 20 as earlier reported.It was determined that some of those Americans who had been unaccounted for were "among the deceased," according to a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, which provided the numbers.

Oct. 12

The confirmed number of Americans killed in Israel rises to 25, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says during a joint news conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel.Blinken reiterated that Israel "has the right -- indeed, the obligation -- to defend itself" but that it was "so important to take every possible precaution to avoid harming civilians."

Oct. 12, just after 1 p.m. ET

The death toll of American citizens has risen to 27, John Kirby, spokesperson for the National Security Council, says at a White House briefing on Thursday afternoon. Fourteen Americans remain unaccounted for.。

B | 他在香港从事IT工作，会说寥寥几个中文词汇，此前先后在澳大利亚、美国工作过，最后和家人一起留在了香港。一番交谈之后，我心想：“完了，对印度三哥的刻板印象更深刻了，果然一个印度人就是一个压缩包，哪里都有。”今年以来，不少人感受到在中国看到的印度人面孔好像变多了，小红书上也有帖子称：“我所在的城市突然多了好多印度人……” 2020年以来，受疫情影响，印度和中国的直航客运服务被暂停。

C | 而今年4月，双方同意恢复直航、简化签证，从而改善“来华旅游”的可达性。中国驻印度使领馆的统计中，截至2025年4月9日，中国驻印度使领馆今年已为印度公民核发赴华签证超8.5万件；中印两国将于10月底前恢复直航，印度靛蓝航空10月26日开通加尔各答——广州每日直飞；东航11月9日恢复上海浦东—德里航线，每周3班。同时，国务院10月1日实施的“K字签证”新政策，印度相关媒体报道了《用来抗衡美国H-1B签的中国K字签证》和《为何中国K字签证是对特朗普H-1B签证战的回应》，“中国K签条件”“巴基斯坦人申请中国K签”等条目成了热搜。怎么？中国也要成为印度“润人”的目的地了吗？今年，美印关系变化有点偏离原来的轨道，《外交事务》杂志近日就刊登了一篇印度学者的文章，题为“印度和美国之间令人震惊的裂痕”。原因有二，一方面，特朗普政府为惩罚印度从俄罗斯大量进口石油，自8月27日起正式对印度商品加征25%的额外关税，使总税率升至50%；另一方面，9月19日，特朗普签署公告，将企业为H-1B签证申请人支付的费用提高至10万美元，否则不得入境。要知道，美国每年发放的H-1B签证中，其中印度人获得签证数占签发总数超过70%。

D | 这让无数原本怀揣着“美国梦”的印度人，不得不将目的地从美国改道他国。比如，日本首相石破茂就表示，未来5年内，日本要与印度实现50万人的人员交流目标。其中5万人为拥有理工背景、拥有专业知识的印度技术人才。作为拥有14.6亿人口，GDP增长超6%的经济体，印度长期以来被看作拥有着“下一个中国”的可能性。

E | 正如《新镀金时代》所描述的：“不论如何，印度的经济和政治实力注定要在21世纪继续增长，一如19世纪的美国。印度最新的经济总量为2.3万亿美元，和英国的差距微乎其微。照此趋势，印度不出意外将在21世纪中叶超过美国，再往后或许还会超过中国。

F | 21世纪将成为美国、中国、印度三国博弈的时代。比起中美，印度仍处于初级阶段，但也正因此拥有最大的潜力。” 而作为这样潜力可见的市场，印度又因政策多变、营商环境复杂，被看做是“外企的修罗场”。2020年，印度政府就曾以“国家安全”的原因，连续多轮封禁中国包括TikTok、WeChat、UC浏览器在内超200个手机应用程序。一方面，奔走于世界各地的印度劳工，早已完成了肉身全球化的进程；而印度市场对外资的态度，长期抵触抗拒，难以开放并融入。

G | 而时至今日，当世界开始新的脉动，印度市场的潜力中，会有中国企业的机会吗？一、印度，为何沦为“人才出口大国”？印度人几乎无处不在。

H | 2024年，印度收到了1250亿美元的海外汇款。

I | 这是全球最高的数字——比墨西哥、菲律宾、中国都高。这些钱来自中东的建筑工地、硅谷的写字楼，也来自伦敦的医院与新加坡的餐馆。

J | 他们汇回印度南部的小城镇，修建了新房、支付了学费，也支撑了家庭的全部开支。在全球贸易的流动中，大量印度劳工以通过中介公司出国工作的方式，为印度带来了源源不断的财政收入。根据世界银行与印度外交部数据，全球约有 3200万至3400万印度人生活在海外。其中约 1800万人为“非居住印度人”（NRI），另有1500万余人属于“印度裔公民”（PIO）。

K | 这使印度成为世界上海外人口最多的国家。 ChatGPT绘图尽管对于将外资“引进来”持谨慎态度，但在“走出去”上，印度人骨子里就是国际主义者。全球化在印度一直备受推崇，八成以上的印度人都认为全球化是有益的，如此高的支持率在全世界都位居前列。因此，尽管印度GDP一直在高速增长，但产业结构失衡。其中，服务业成为印度经济最主要的拉动项，占GDP的比重达55%。而以外包业务为主的印度程序员们，占到了全球的55%，贡献了印度全国9%的GDP。项飙在《全球“猎身”，世界信息产业和印度的技术劳工》中，将这项以人力出海创造价值的方式称为“猎身”，简单理解，有的贸易交易品为货物，而“猎身”活动的交易品为IT劳动力。猎身的世界体系中有两大中心：印度和美国。印度是生产IT劳动力的基地。印度不仅是灵活、廉价IT工人的来源国，是工人技能提高的场所，而且还是IT工人全球流动的“协调”中心。美国则是全球流动的IT工人的首选目的地，同时也是IT工人们对其他目的地进行评判的参考标准。印度为全球的IT产业贡献了最有价值的资产（劳动力），美国则在全世界吸收现成的、高质量的IT人才。特朗普本次提升的H-1B签证费用，也正是卡在此处。早在1992年，美国出台了H-1B签证制度，据INS在1998年的统计，彼时在美国持H-1B签证的计算机相关行业人员中，印度人占了74%，因此，H-1B签证早就获得了“印度人签证”的绰号。可以说，每个不甘平庸的印度人，都怀揣着一个美国梦，即通过中介公司到海外做IT外包工作，成功润出去，幸运的话还可以成为跨国的科技企业家。甚至在印度的社会文化中，能否成为海外IT员工，还与婚姻嫁娶相关，当一个家庭中出了个成功的IT儿子，首先引起周围人们羡慕或者妒忌的是他能为家庭挣来数额不菲的嫁妆。1998-2000年间，IT公司的股份也经常被用作嫁妆的一部分。

L | 而现在，美国梦醒了。被特朗普卡住的印度程序员，需要重新寻找目的地。印度劳动力创造的服务业市场，也会面对供给和需求的再度分配。《全球“猎身”，世界信息产业和印度的技术劳工》中提及，即使海外市场对IT劳工的需求高涨，但裁员、失业却和高需求同时存在，原因即是人力市场供求曲线的不断变化。而在以猎身为主要方式的服务业，这一次受供求影响的，是四海为家的印度劳工群体。值得提及的是，除IT从业者外，海外印度裔群体约一半在中东海湾地区。在阿联酋、沙特、卡塔尔和科威特，他们从事建筑、运输、家政、清洁等蓝领工作；还有部分分布于新加坡、马来西亚、南非等地，从事中小贸易与服务业。

M | 在阿联酋，印度人是最大外来族群——350万人，占当地总人口的三分之一；在沙特，这个数字是 250万；在科威特和卡塔尔，也各有上百万印度工人。印度服务业支撑了欧美地区的IT产业，也是中东地区蓝领群体的构成者之一。而这次的天价签证事件，实则折射了印度经济结构的核心问题，仅靠肉身出海的服务业谋生，并不能将贸易活动的主动权握在自己手上。并且IT人才的流失，也让印度错失了在移动互联网和AI世代实现弯道超车的机遇。

N | 如今，印度裔公民掌管着苹果、Microsoft 和谷歌等互联网巨头。

o | 根据经合组织数据，印度输出受过高等教育的移民数量最多，在全球范围内达到 312 万，占全球份额的 65%。

p | 事实上，印度政府也早已知道产业结构存在的问题，并尝试探索，在IT服务之外，印度是否拥有可以被触摸的产业？因为中美博弈，我们正处于全球供应链深刻重构的变革时期，这对于印度、印尼、越南、墨西哥等新兴市场来说，堪称历史性机遇。那么，抓住这一时机重组制造业，会是印度经济新的“增长引擎”吗？二、莫迪的“制造梦”十年：为何GDP仍被服务员绑架？先说我的答案，制造业会为印度经济带来增长，但想要成为支柱型产业，需要更长的时间和投入。据外媒，苹果公司在印度的年销售额在2025财年（按印度市场惯例，截至2025年3月31日）创下近90亿美元的历史纪录，较一财上年的80亿美元增长了约13%。出于对印度市场的增长预期，将印度打造成苹果生产基地，是库克全球战略的重要一部分。据彭博社数据，2025财年（截至2025年3月末），印度制造的iPhone生产量同比增长了近60%；2025年4-7月印度iPhone出口额达75亿美元。这也是苹果公司史上首次，在印度生产iPhone的所有全新机型。三年时间里，它从单纯的组装环节，向更高附加值的制造延伸：玻璃后盖、金属外壳、电池模组等部件逐渐实现本地生产，供应商网络也扩大至45家以上。苹果在印度的投资可以看作印度制造最典型的缩影。

q | 2014年，莫迪政府提出“Make in India”，目标是在2030年让制造业占GDP的比重从15%提升至25%。十年过去，数字虽未达标，但变化确实有发生。

r | 政府推出的PLI（生产链接激励）计划吸引了约190亿美元的投资，带动了手机、电子、制药、汽车零部件等行业的扩张。电子行业最为明显，苹果、三星、小米等巨头纷纷在印度建厂。根据印度政府数据，2025财年苹果在印度的生产额已达220亿美元，出口量较上年增长近六成，其中约80%的iPhone由印度出口海外。

s | 印度通信部长阿什维尼·维什纳夫（Ashwini Vaishnaw）也称：“在印度销售的手机中，有99.2%是在本土制造的。” ChatGPT绘图 2020年之后，随着全球供应链重构和中美贸易摩擦，印度成为“China + 1”战略的重要落点。然而，乐观情绪背后，不可忽视“质控危机”的存在：部分组装厂的产品合格率仅约50%，大量高端零部件仍需从中国、越南进口。印度制造的现实，仍更接近于“半成品工业”。一名印度服装行业的跨境电商从业者向霞光社表示，从结果上看，印度制造和中国制造相比最大的差异是无法做到快速响应。他表示，印度市场目前是不可能做到“小单快反”的，因为小单快反要求设计的高附加值，它的成本也非常高。

t | 在工业化成熟的情况下，一个工人/工位一天的质检效率可以做到1000件，但工业化程度不足，一天可能只能做到200件的量。 “工业化是社会进程必须要经历的一个方向，因为它能够大规模地、以极低的成本去生产人类的需求，但是发展中国家没有这样的经历，它不会有这样的培训和认知。”而在与印度同事共事的过程中，制造环节最让他感到痛苦的地方即是“不在意事实”，比如制造总会有一些公差，而对于不同尺码的服装来说，能够接受的公差范围是多少，并没有明确的标准。“每一个款型，主要的尺码，印度制造业的工厂都给不出来，甚至根本都没有一个参照，但他仍然可以非常大言不惭地讲我们的质量标准很高。从客观条件上看，印度制造业也存在发展限制。

u | 首先是供应链短板。印度的产业链配套薄弱，尤其在半导体、精密模具、核心电子元件等环节。

v | 缺乏产业集群使得制造成本高企。

w | 一个零部件从深圳到金奈，可能要跨越6000公里和两道关税；其次是基础设施问题。尽管印度在铁路、公路、港口上加大投入，但与中国和东南亚相比，其物流效率仍偏低。电力供应不稳、港口拥堵、地区政策不一，这些都让企业倍感掣肘；第三是劳动力结构。印度每年新增劳动力超过1200万人，但具备工业技能的比例仍然不足30%。大量人口进入低附加值的服务业，而制造业并未成为吸纳就业的主力；最后是政策与行政效率。外资企业频繁抱怨审批周期过长、地方税制复杂、进口关税波动。甚至苹果也不得不为一项设备税法奔走游说。这种制度性摩擦，让“Make in India”的口号在执行层面显得力不从心。印度的经济仍以服务业与消费为主，制造业的增长虽快，却未能撬动整体结构性转型。从数据上看，纵观数据，印度制造业的产出在增长、投资在扩大、出口在上升，但“制造业占GDP比重”这一指标，却在过去十年始终徘徊在15%至16%之间。发展制造业是印度的必经之路，但工业化并不是一蹴而就的。在真正到达之前，它还有很长的路要走。

x | 三、外企坟场or未来乐土？撕裂的印度与它的双重叙事有趣的是，即使足迹遍布世界各地，更多印度人仍没有迈出“印度叙事”的框架，印度固有的阶级区隔与等级观念，几乎是根植于印度侨民的心中的。项飙在《全球“猎身”，世界信息产业和印度的技术劳工》中写到：在猎身过程中，伴随“民族化”过程的并不是集体力量的作用，而是一个“个人化”的进程。

y | 个体化并不意味着印度工人在心理人格上的重大转型，也不意味着他们将接受西方意义上的“个人主义”。

z | “我的大多数被访者都对他们既能坚守“印度文化”（像家庭至上以及虔诚奉教的信念），又能在世界市场中占有一席之地而感到特别骄傲。” 换句话说，印度版本的“出人头地”即是，在海外凭专业能力取得成就，然后迎娶高种姓老婆、踏入上层社会。

| 更耐人寻味的是，在外企招募印度员工的过程中，多数企业主认为，“只有印度人才能管理印度人”，《全球“猎身”，世界信息产业和印度的技术劳工》中这样记录：“他们从来不安心工作，才工作三个月，他们就开始要求升职、涨工资。他们的眼睛总是盯着别的地方，随时想跳槽。”因此，印度IT工人通常被认为很难管理，而职场中介也就不愿意直接和印度工人打交道，他们倾向于通过印度人开的劳力行招募印度工人。或者说，无论是已经“走出去”在海外工作的印度人，还是在印度本土的印度人，也仍然逃不出印度文化、制度塑造的框架。观察印度市场14年的Tata向霞光社表示，印度国家从最上层，到底层社会，都渗透着一种极强的思维模式，即上位者对下位者有极强的支配与掌控力。 “比如我的一个印度甲方，他在和我（外国人）沟通的时候非常温和体面，但是对本地员工，几乎是极为粗暴和刻薄的，但无论是员工还是他自己，都不会觉得这有什么不妥。”他表示。

| 这样根深蒂固的等级观念，与印度社会的财富过分集中紧密相关。需要提及，国际基金组织的报告指出，印度目前是亚洲主要经济体中贫富差距最大的一个国家。少有人知道，在看似不发达的印度，身家超10亿美元的富豪已经过百，仅次于美国、中国和俄罗斯。2017年，这批富豪的财富总额高达4790亿美元；印度的百万美元富豪更是高达17.8万人。过去十年间，尽管印度经济增长迅速，但贫富差距却日趋扩大。根据瑞士信贷的财富报告，印度最富有的 1% 人口掌握了全国超过40%的财富。

| 而底层40%人口的收入总和，甚至不及前者的十分之一。因此，经济增长的大部分果实被少数人所控制，他们构成了国内最具影响力的商业与政治网络。印度的超级富豪，在本国工商业拥有相当大的话语权，和权力也走得很近，有人因此将他们戏称为“宝莱坞寡头”。政界和商界存在着强绑定的关系，用一句话说就是，“亿万富豪的财富主要靠三样东西：土地、自然资源、政府的合同和许可证。” 1949年，美国经济学家James Duesenberry提出相对收入假说：幸福取决于收入相对于社会平均水平或同群体的相对地位。

| 也就是说：人们宁可月入5，000元、周围人都赚4，000，也不愿月入1万元、周围人都赚2万元。

| 那么，当更多的钱掌握在更少的人手中，对权力的贪婪，往往盖过了对发展的追求。

| 《新镀金时代》一书用“镀金时代”的说法来比喻印度的政经环境，意指时代如镀金般光鲜，但内里早已腐朽不堪。这种时代的政治尤为腐朽。书中引用了风险投资人贾扬特·辛哈和政治学家阿舒托什·瓦尔什尼的观点，他们呼吁政府采取有力措施，限制超级富豪的权利。“经济是有活力不假，但这活力是腐朽而疯狂的。” 因此，手握巨大财富和权力的印度富豪们也会对外资感到恐惧：外资的大规模进入，可能会改变这种分配格局。

| 一旦全球资本打破行业垄断、冲击本地财团，势必触及印度富豪阶层的核心利益。因此，保护主义不仅是一种经济战略，也是一种权力既得者的防御机制：它让财富集中结构得以延续，让政治体系维持相对稳定。印度财富分布（2023年），ChatGPT绘图包括中国企业在内的外企在印度受挫也就不足为奇。近年来，印度税务部门对壳牌、诺基亚、IBM、沃尔玛、凯恩能源等多家外资企业都进行了税务调查并开出了高额罚单。日韩不少企业也面临同样的状况，以至于印度因此被称为“跨国企业的坟场”。

| “但对于印度人来说，他们也自恃是新的增长极，就不再急于对外企说欢迎光临了。”一名在印跨境电商从业者向霞光社表示。此外，在印度文化中，以不太光彩的方式争取一切对自己有利的条件，是一种惯性。

| Tata表示：“你可能会经常感受到他们对外资的各种敲打，比如压价、做中间商赚差价，或者是逼迫外资把技术交出来，甚至会强制要求对供应链的话语权等等”，这一切看似不体面的方式，正是印度商界的生存之道。

| 除了贫富差距外和阶级区隔外，不同地域间的文明时差，也让“发展主义”的理念，在不同区域间遇到不同的推行阻力。

| “由于民族众多的问题，其实时至今日，印度并没有完成真正意义上的建国。”Tata说。事实上，学界、政治界对于“印度国家形成”的一个长期争论：印度作为一个“统一国家”的政治、行政与经济结构，很大程度上是英国殖民时期构建出来的。在英国到来之前，印度次大陆并不是一个统一国家。它由数百个邦国、王朝、部落共同体组成；语言、宗教、种姓、政治体系极为多样；北有莫卧儿帝国（穆斯林王朝），南有马拉塔、迈索尔等本地政权。这些地区之间虽有贸易与文化往来，但并无中央集权的“印度国家”概念。 “印度”（India）这个词，本身是从波斯语“Hindustan”（意为印度河以东之地）演化而来，更多是一种地理称谓，而非国家名称。国家的整合问题是更为需要担忧的事。印度拥有22种官方语言、数百个民族与宗教群体。从北到南，从印地语区到泰米尔语区，经济与文化差距极大。在这样一个国家里，经济政策往往被地方政治重新定义。开放政策在德里是“改革”，但在比哈尔、奥迪沙等贫困邦，可能被视为“威胁本地工人”。这让印度中央政府在推动开放时必须保持克制，因为过度依赖外资、削弱本地产业，很可能加剧地区分裂情绪。保护主义，在此语境下，既是经济选择，也是维系国家统一的政治工具。因此，自独立之初开始，印度的政治焦虑就是如何防止再次被外国资本支配。1947年独立后，首任总理尼赫鲁推动计划经济体制，实行严格的许可证制度（License Raj）。企业要获得生产许可、进口批文乃至原材料配额，都要经过层层审批。那一代印度领导人对“自立”的执念，塑造了印度经济的精神底色：只有掌握生产控制权，国家才真正独立。1991年，外汇危机迫使印度转向市场化改革，但改革的方向并非“全面开放”，而是“谨慎地开放”。